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Operations Research and Aviation Safety

  • Module code: AE5506
  • Year: 2018/9
  • Level: 5
  • Credits: 30
  • Pre-requisites: None
  • Co-requisites: None

Summary

The purpose of this module is to introduce you to the applied mathematical techniques that enable operational organisations to achieve efficiency and productivity. The focus of the teaching is on airline operations but the techniques taught are equally applicable to other transport industries which share similar operational challenges. The topic of flight safety is used to reinforce the applied statistics that has been taught earlier in the module. The module aims to familiarise you with the knowledge of basic theories and methodologies for safety analysis and risk assessment in different aviation environments and with the concept and practicality of a ‘Safety Management System'.

Aims

  • To introduce students to applied mathematical methods used in the field of Operations Research and give students the opportunity to apply their learning to aviation safety data.
  • To introduce students to safety and incident analysis including the various models used to describe human factors.
  • To give students a broad understanding of safety management systems and how aviation organisations have implemented such as a system.

Learning outcomes

  1. Identify and apply mathematical methods to complex data to achieve meaningful information for the purpose of improving efficiency, optimising processes and quantifying risk.
  2. Demonstrate the use of analytical methods for probabilistic risk assessment including event tree and fault tree analysis.
  3. Explain the role of human factors in aviation safety and describe how human behaviour can be analysed and controlled to prevent safety occurrences.
  4. Describe the tools and methods to implement an effective ICAO Safety Management System.
  5. Present an analysis of a historical accident as part of a group.

Curriculum content

  • Introduction to operations research and data management.
  • Graphical representation of data.
  • Statistics and probability theory.
  • Algorithms, graphs and networks.
  • Aviation safety legislation.
  • Probability risk assessment in aviation.
  • Human factors in aviation including fatigue risk management.
  • Retrospective analysis and incident investigation.
  • ICAO safety management system framework.
  • SMS tools, including hazard identification, risk assessment and management, safety culture and safety assurance;

Teaching and learning strategy

The module content will be delivered in a series of interactive lectures sessions consolidated with tutorial sessions. The lectures will be used to explain and discuss the theoretical content with solutions to example problems demonstrated. The tutorial sessions will provide students the opportunity to practice solutions to problems and receive guidance. The module content is designed to advance the student's mathematical skills acquired in the first year of the programme. The tutorial sessions will focus particularly on the statistical topics associated with Operational Research Methods incorporating Statistics and Optimisation.

The topic of flight safety is best explained by a discussion of the basic theory used in practice and a series of analytical case studies of real aviation incidents that have been investigated. Lectures will be used to demonstrate and discuss the process of incident investigation and reporting.

Throughout the module, students will be able to assess their progress through a series of formative exercises in class.  Students will be provided with problem sets embedded in the VLE that they will have to work on during their guided independent study.  Students will also be provided with a set of milestones by which they can monitor their progress on the module.  This will help them use the guided learning hours effectively.  An indicative breakdown of how the guided learning hours could be used is given in the table below

Breakdown of Teaching and Learning Hours

Definitive UNISTATS Category Indicative Description Hours
Scheduled learning and teaching 22 two hour interactive lectures 11 two hour problem solving tutorials 10 two hour case study based seminars 44 22 20
Guided independent study Pre-reading and review of lectures (54 hrs) Solving problem sets (50 hrs) Preparing individual report (40 hrs) Working on group report (40 hrs) Revising for exam (30 hrs) 214
Total (number of credits x 10) 300

Assessment strategy

The module is summatively assessed through an in class test in Teaching Block 2 and individual and group projects.  A formative test that does not contribute to the overall assessment will take place in TB1 to provide feedback on student progress.

The tests will be used to assess student's ability to apply the mathematical methods discussed in the lectures.  These tests will enable students to identify how well they have understood the analytical techniques presented in the lectures and provide guidance to the teaching staff of those students requiring further help.  The use of numerical methods will also be assessed as part of the individual and group projects.

As part of the group activity students will work on an ongoing project to conduct formal classification, with one or more taxonomies, of a real accident that occurred in the past. Students will be expected to plan and execute the project using methods learnt as part of the project management content of the module. A key element of the assessment is a group presentation which will help the students to develop skills in planning, producing and delivering a structured presentation in a front of an audience. The teaching staff will be able to gauge the knowledge and understanding of the subject matter by method of critically questioning the presentational content.

The individual written report will provide students the opportunity to conduct analysis and classification of aviation safety 'occurrences' and application of SMS methods to realistic cases. Students will be required to write a formal report building on the skills they have developed in the first year of the course. The rationale for the technical report is to prepare students for the final year project reports and thus detailed constructive feedback will be given by the teaching staff.

Mapping of Learning Outcomes to Assessment Strategy (Indicative)

Learning Outcome Assessment Strategy
1. Identify and apply mathematical methods to complex data to achieve meaningful information for the purpose of improving efficiency, optimising processes and quantifying risk. Coursework/In-class test
2. Demonstrate the use of analytical methods for probabilistic risk assessment including event tree and fault tree analysis. Coursework/In-class test
3. Explain the role of human factors in aviation safety and describe how human behaviour can be analysed and controlled to prevent safety occurrences. Group Report
4. Describe the tools and methods to implement an effective ICAO Safety Management System. Individual Report
5. Present an analysis of a historical accident as part of a group Group Report

Elements of Assessment

Description of Assessment Definitive UNISTATS Categories Percentage
In class test Written Exam 30%
Individual Report Coursework 30%
Group Report Practical Exam 40%
Total (to equal 100%) 100%

Achieving a pass

It IS NOT a requirement that any element of assessment is passed separately in order to achieve an overall pass for the module.

Bibliography core texts

There is no core text for this module. A list of recommended reading resources is given below.

Bibliography recommended reading

  • Bronson, R. and Naadimuthu, G., (1997). Schaum's Outline of Operations Research. 2nd Edition. Schaum's Outlines, ISBN 978-0070080201.
  • Andrews, J.J. and Moss, B., (2002). Reliability and Risk Assessment. 2nd Edition.  Wiley-Blackwell, ISBN 978-1860582905.
  • Henley, E.J. and Kumamoto H., (1980). Reliability Engineering and Risk Assessment. Prentice-Hall, ISBN 978-0137722518.
  • Dekker, S., (2014). The Field Guide to Understanding 'Human Error'. 3rd Edition. Ashgate, ISBN 978-1472439048.
  • Reason, J., (1997). Managing the Risks of Organizational Accidents. Ashgate, ISBN 978-1840141054.

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